Core point of view: the demand for AI drives the performance of the leading optical module company to grow substantially. At the beginning of 2023, the generated AI exploded, the demand for optical interconnection in the data center increased greatly, and the sales of high-speed optical modules and supporting optical devices gradually increased. Starting from 23Q2, Zhongji Xuchuang, Tianfu Communication, Xinyi Sheng and other optical modules & optical device companies began to be driven by the demand for AI, and the profits in the first quarter of 24 were all significantly higher than the same period last year. We believe that under the background of the substantial growth of AI computing power demand of technology giants such as Microsoft, Google, META and Amazon, and under the accelerated traction of AI computing giants such as Nvidia, the high-speed optical interconnection market has grown rapidly, the iterative cycle has been greatly shortened, the competition pattern has been continuously optimized, and the strong leading companies have been Hengqiang. We predict that leading companies such as Zhongji Xuchuang, Tianfu Communications and Xin Yisheng will continue to maintain rapid performance growth throughout the year, and the company will usher in the profit and valuation of Davis double-click the high-quality development of operators and act as a "Poseidon needle" in the communications industry. In the context of macroeconomic challenges, operators on the one hand continue to improve 5G and smart home business penetration, on the other hand, pay close attention to the industrial trend of industrial digitization and AI smart computing center, steady growth in revenue and profit, and become a performance stabilizer in the communications industry. In the mid-term of 5G, the three major operators reduce capital expenditure and continue to increase dividend payout rates, paying more attention to shareholder returns. We believe that in the era of digital economy and AI, the scarcity of the three major operators in the national economy will continue to increase, and the valuation method should fully take into account stable growth, high dividends and the era of digital economy.BlockchainmonopolyHis potential growth opportunities are expected to continue to be revalued. There is a significant recovery in the export chain, giving birth to opportunities for industry leaders. According to wind, revenue from the communications industry's export chain grew by 50% in the first quarter of 2024 compared with the same period last year.Blockchainmonopoly.3%, the net profit increased by 170%, the gross profit margin increased by 2pct, and the net profit margin increased by 6% compared with the same period last year.Blockchainmonopoly.6pct . In addition to the demand for overseas AI optical interconnection, there has been a significant recovery in overseas demand for traditional communication equipment, enterprise communication terminals, the Internet of things and traditional data centers. We believe that the recovery of the export chain will be sustainable in the follow-up of 24 years, and we suggest that we should pay attention to the investment opportunities of listed companies in the direction of enterprise communication terminals, Internet of things, satellite positioning and navigation and electric power information going to sea. The destocking cycle of the Internet of things and traditional data centers is basically over, and the industry is recovering. From 2020 to 2021, due to the impact of public health events, the demand for online office, cloud computing and contactless interconnection increased significantly, and the demand for animal networking and traditional data centers increased.BlockchainmonopolyEntering the demand overdraft period from 2022 to 2023, the Internet of things and traditional data centers are facing destocking, and the performance of mid-stream and upstream companies is under pressure. Based on the performance of relevant listed companies in the first quarter of 2023 and 2024, we believe that the destocking cycle of the Internet of things and traditional data centers is basically over, and demand shows signs of recovery, but the slope of recovery remains to be seen. It is recommended to pay attention to the leading companies with earlier performance recovery and strong performance persistence in the plate. Risk hint. The risk that 5G construction falls short of expectations; the risk of AI industry development falling short of expectations; the risk of macroeconomic recovery falling short of expectations; geopolitical risks; the risk of trade friction [disclaimer] this article only represents the views of third parties and does not represent the position of Hexun. Investors operate accordingly, at their own risk.
[disclaimer] this article only represents the views of a third party and does not represent the position of Hexun. Investors operate accordingly, at their own risk.